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Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils

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  • Genti Kostandini
  • Roberto La Rovere
  • Zhe Guo

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="fr"> Dans la présente étude, nous analysons les répercussions potentielles du projet Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS – maïs amélioré pour les sols africains) dans deux pays africains : le Kenya et l’Afrique du Sud. Les variétés de maïs utilisées dans le cadre du projet IMAS offrent la possibilité d'accroitre considérablement les rendements dans les régions qui utilisent peu ou pas d'engrais. Dans le cadre de notre étude, nous avons utilisé des données spatiales sur la production et sur les ménages pour déterminer le taux d'utilisation d'engrais dans les zones agroécologiques de chaque pays ainsi que les divers types de ménages qui cultivent le maïs. Les résultats de notre étude autorisent à penser que le projet IMAS permettra de dégager des avantages bruts évalués à 586 M$ US, dont 136 M$ US et 100 M$ US pour les producteurs du Kenya et de l'Afrique du Sud respectivement, ainsi que 112 M$ US et 238 M$ US supplémentaires pour les consommateurs du Kenya et de l'Afrique du Sud respectivement. Ces avantages pourraient permettre à plus d'un million de personnes d'échapper à la pauvreté dans ces deux pays d'ici 2025. Les résultats à l'échelle des ménages semblent indiquer que les ménages de petite taille installés dans les zones où l'utilisation des engrais est assez faible sont plus susceptibles de tirer des avantages importants.

Suggested Citation

  • Genti Kostandini & Roberto La Rovere & Zhe Guo, 2016. "Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 147-168, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:64:y:2016:i:1:p:147-168
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