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Ex‐ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation: the case of sorghum in Kenya

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  • Bradford F. Mills

Abstract

Agricultural commodity research has very site‐specific productivity impacts. Crucial determinants of the magnitude and distribution of research benefits include agroecological conditions for technology generation and adoption, as well as commodity market‐structure. This paper presents a process for ex‐ante research evaluation which accounts for these factors with a dynamic, spatial multi‐market model. Simulation results based on sorghum research in Kenya demonstrate that potential research benefits can vary dramatically research program research target zones. In Kenya, however, population‐induced demand growth not technological development will have the greatest influence on future sorghum markets.

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  • Bradford F. Mills, 1997. "Ex‐ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation: the case of sorghum in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(2), pages 125-138, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:16:y:1997:i:2:p:125-138
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1997.tb00448.x
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    1. J. Mohan Rao, 1989. "Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Bapna, Shanti L. & Binswanger, Hans P. & Quizon, Jaime B., 1984. "Systems of Output Supply and Factor Demand Equations for Semi-Arid Tropical India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 39(2), April.
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    4. Rao, J. Mohan, 1989. "Agricultural supply response: A survey," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, March.
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    1. G. Nagy, Joseph & Quddus, M. A., 1998. "National agricultural commodity research priorities for Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 327-340, December.
    2. Hareau, Guy Gaston & Norton, George W. & Mills, Bradford F. & Peterson, Everett B., 2004. "Potential Benefits Of Transgenic Rice In Asia: A General Equilibrium Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20334, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Hareau, Guy G. & Mills, Bradford F. & Norton, George W., 2006. "The potential benefits of herbicide-resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay: Lessons for small developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 162-179, April.
    4. Mutangadura, Gladys & Norton, George W., 1999. "Agricultural research priority setting under multiple objectives: an example from Zimbabwe," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 277-286, May.
    5. Hareau, Guy Gaston & Mills, Bradford F. & Norton, George W., 2005. "Arroz Transgénico en Uruguay: un modelo de simulación para estimar los beneficios económicos potenciales," Serie Tecnica 121683, Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuaria (INIA).
    6. Genti Kostandini & Roberto La Rovere & Zhe Guo, 2016. "Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 147-168, March.
    7. Pemsl, Diemuth E. & Staver, Charles & Hareau, Guy & Alene, Arega D. & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Labarta, Ricardo & Thiele, Graham, 2022. "Prioritizing international agricultural research investments: lessons from a global multi-crop assessment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(4).
    8. Alwang, Jeffrey & Siegel, Paul B., 2003. "Measuring the impacts of agricultural research on poverty reduction," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Arega D. Alene & V. M. Manyong & Eric F. Tollens & Steffen Abele, 2009. "Efficiency–equity tradeoffs and the scope for resource reallocation in agricultural research: evidence from Nigeria," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Occelli, M. & Compaore, E. & Brown, D. & Barry, F. & Poda, L.S. & Traore, F. & Waongo, A. & Rubin, D. & Tufan, H.A., 2024. "Ex-ante priority setting in crop breeding: Towards inclusive innovation for impact," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. Alene, Arega D. & Manyong, V.M. & Tollens, Eric F. & Abele, Steffen, 2007. "Targeting agricultural research based on potential impacts on poverty reduction: Strategic program priorities by agro-ecological zone in Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 394-412, June.
    12. Kamau, Mercy & Mills, Bradford F., 1998. "Technology, location and trade: Kenyan vegetables," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 395-415, November.

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