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Arroz Transgénico en Uruguay: un modelo de simulación para estimar los beneficios económicos potenciales

Author

Listed:
  • Hareau, Guy Gaston
  • Mills, Bradford F.
  • Norton, George W.

Abstract

economic surplus, imperfect markets, adoption rate, GMO, monopoly power.

Suggested Citation

  • Hareau, Guy Gaston & Mills, Bradford F. & Norton, George W., 2005. "Arroz Transgénico en Uruguay: un modelo de simulación para estimar los beneficios económicos potenciales," Serie Tecnica 121683, Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuaria (INIA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iniast:121683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giancarlo Moschini & Harvey Lapan, 1997. "Intellectual Property Rights and the Welfare Effects of Agricultural R&D," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1229-1242.
    2. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & Pray, Carl & Qiao, Fangbin & Rozelle, Scott, 2003. "Biotechnology as an alternative to chemical pesticides: a case study of Bt cotton in China," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 55-67, July.
    3. Rao, J. Mohan, 1989. "Agricultural supply response: A survey," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Rao, J. Mohan, 1989. "Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(1), March.
    5. Pingali, P. L. & Traxler, G., 2002. "Changing locus of agricultural research: will the poor benefit from biotechnology and privatization trends?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 223-238, June.
    6. Couvillion, Warren C. & Kari, Fatimah & Hudson, Darren & Allen, Albert J., 2000. "A Preliminary Economic Assessment Of Roundup Ready Soybeans In Mississippi," Research reports 15783, Mississippi State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    7. Saha Atanu & H. Alan Love & Robert Schwart, 1994. "Adoption of Emerging Technologies Under Output Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(4), pages 836-846.
    8. Qaim, Matin, 2001. "A prospective evaluation of biotechnology in semi-subsistence agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 165-175, September.
    9. Hubbell, Bryan J. & Marra, Michele C. & Carlson, Gerald A., 2000. "Estimating The Demand For A New Technology: Bt Cotton And Insecticide Policies In The Southeast," Proceedings:Transitions in Agbiotech: Economics of Strategy and Policy, June 24-25, 1999, Washington, D.C. 26016, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    10. José Benjamin Falck-Zepeda & Greg Traxler & Robert G. Nelson, 2000. "Surplus Distribution from the Introduction of a Biotechnology Innovation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 360-369.
    11. Mills, Bradford F., 1997. "Ex -ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation: the case of sorghum in Kenya," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(2), May.
    12. Mingxia Zhang, 1997. "The Effects of Imperfect Competition on the Size and Distribution of Research Benefits," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1252-1265.
    13. Qaim, Matin, 2001. "A prospective evaluation of biotechnology in semi -subsistence agriculture," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(2-3), September.
    14. Matin Qaim & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 814-828.
    15. Matin Qaim & Greg Traxler, 2005. "Roundup Ready soybeans in Argentina: farm level and aggregate welfare effects," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 73-86, January.
    16. Bryan J. Hubbell & Michele C. Marra & Gerald A. Carlson, 2000. "Estimating the Demand for a New Technology: Bt Cotton and Insecticide Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 118-132.
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    Keywords

    En pequeños países en desarrollo como Uruguay; los beneficios económicos potenciales que se obtendrían por la adopción de nuevas tecnologías agrícolas basadas en biotecnología están limitados por una base productiva reducida. En este trabajo se evalúa ex - ante el impacto económico de una variedad de arroz transgénico resistente a herbicidas donde el poder de mercado de la multinacional propietaria de la variedad afecta las tasas de adopción a través del margen monopólico en el precio de la semilla. Se emplean métodos de simulación estocástica para estudiar la variación de los resultados a cambios en los parámetros tecnológicos y en las tasas de adopción. La media del excedente económico de los productores es de US$1; 82 millones; mientras que la ganancia monopólica es de US$0; 55 millones. Estos beneficios económicos relativamente escasos sugieren que; sin estrategias de política pública que incrementen los beneficios potenciales y reduzcan los costos de investigación; las multinacionales no invertirían recursos significativos en el desarrollo de una variedad transgénica adaptada a las condiciones locales. Las alianzas con instituciones nacionales y el acceso a mercados regionales ampliados también contribuyen a incrementar los incentivos privados en I&D.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C14; E17; Q16; Q18; Q55;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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