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A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia

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  • Sherman Robinson
  • Dirk Willenbockel
  • Kenneth Strzepek

Abstract

This study links a multi-sectoral regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia with a system of country-specific hydrology, crop, road and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change towards 2050. In the absence of externally funded policy-driven adaptation investments Ethiopiaâ..s GDP in the 2040s will be up to 10 percent below the counterfactual no-climate change baseline. Suitably scaled adaptation measures could restore aggregate welfare to baseline levels at a cost that is substantially lower than the welfare losses due to climate change.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:489-502
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2012.00676.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00676.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & S.J. Tol, Richard, 2005. "On climate change and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12750, The World Bank.
    3. Robinson, Sherman & Yunez-Naude, Antonio & Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Devarajan, Shantayanan, 1999. "From stylized to applied models:: Building multisector CGE models for policy analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-38.
    4. Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk & Ahmed, Hashim & Dorosh, Paul, 2010. "Implications of food production and price shocks for household welfare in Ethiopia: a general equilibrium analysis," MPRA Paper 39533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Amsalu Woldie Yalew, 2016. "Economy-wide Effects of Climate Change in Ethiopia," EcoMod2016 9750, EcoMod.
    2. Headey, Derek & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & You, Liangzhi, 2014. "Diversification and Development in Pastoralist Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 200-213.
    3. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2016. "Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 205-225, April.
    4. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "General equilibrium effects of public adaptation in agriculture in LDCs: Evidence from Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 11/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    5. repec:bla:agecon:v:48:y:2017:i:6:p:693-706 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Elshennawy, Abeer & Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 681-689.
    7. Paul Block & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia's Energy Needs Under a Changing Climate," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 476-488, August.
    8. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    9. Renkow, Mitch & Slade, Roger, 2013. "An assessment of IFPRI's work in Ethiopia 1995-2010: Ideology, influence, and idiosyncrasy," Impact assessments 36, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Block, Paul, 2011. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopiaâ..s Energy Needs under a Changing Climate," WIDER Working Paper Series 090, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "Economic Development under Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 369-377, August.
    12. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    13. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Electricity Transition in Kenya and Ghana: An Exploratory Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 78070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2015. "Climate-Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Markets: Combining a Micro-Level Structural Land-Use Model and a Market-Level Equilibrium Model," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205128, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Alemu Mekonnen, 2014. "Economic Costs of Climate Change and Climate Finance with a Focus on Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 50-82.
    16. Sam Fankhauser, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change," GRI Working Papers 255, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2015. "Micro-Macro Impacts of Climate-Change on Agriculture and Food Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211828, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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