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Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Marc Montaud

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Nicolas Pecastaing

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

This study explores the potential economic and social effects induced by a possible future deterioration of weather conditions on Niger's agriculture. Our scenarios over a 25 year period rely on both long term climate change deterministic features and climate variability stochastic features which take into account a higher than normal frequency of severe droughts. Using a microsimulated Dynamic Recursive Computable General Equilibrium model, we show how a long run mean decrease in main crop yields could adversely affect growth, poverty and food security in the country and how more severe drought would worsen these negative effects. However, we also show that there would appear to be some room for manœuvre for coping strategies for Niger such as improving the rural road network, adopting modern crop varieties or, to a lesser extent, extending irrigation capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Montaud & Nicolas Pecastaing & Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Post-Print hal-01885231, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01885231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Young-Han Kim, 0000. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change under NGFS Scenarios and Monetary Policy," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 15016746, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. Boureima Sawadogo & Hélène Maisonnave, 2024. "What are the impacts of climate change and the Ukrainian war on the sustainable development goals? A case study for Burkina Faso," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1058-1078, March.
    3. Escalante, Luis Enrique & Maisonnave, Helene, 2022. "Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Arata, Linda & Fabrizi, Enrico & Sckokai, Paolo, 2020. "A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 190-208.
    5. Yao, Xilong & Wang, Hualing & Shao, Shuai & Li, Xiaoyu & Guo, Zhi, 2022. "“Booster” or “obstacle”: Can coal capacity cut policies moderate the resource curse effect? Evidence from Shanxi (China)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Boureima Sawadogo, 2022. "Drought Impacts on the Crop Sector and Adaptation Options in Burkina Faso: A Gender-Focused Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    7. Kayenat Kabir & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2023. "Correction to: The new Malthusian challenge in the Sahel: prospects for improving food security in Niger," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(2), pages 477-477, April.
    8. Conigliani, Caterina & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena & Tancredi, Andrea, 2024. "Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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