IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v19y2013i1p19-3210.1007-s11294-012-9380-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Sassi

Abstract

This paper simulates the possible sorghum price change and the related probability of occurrence under different rainfall scenarios and in a context of price uncertainty in international markets. The empirical investigation is based on the stochastic approach. Results indicate an expected increase in sorghum price due to a high level of uncertainty in precipitation and in international market price, the most change likely produced by the latter, and the need to alter the agricultural view of policy making to include a market perspective. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Sassi, 2013. "Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:19-32:10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ringler, Claudia & Zhu, Tingju & Cai, Ximing & Koo, Jawoo & Wang, Dingbao, 2010. "Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios," IFPRI discussion papers 1042, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Deaton, A., 1992. "Saving and Income Smoothing in Cote d'Ivoire," Papers 156, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    3. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. Deressa, T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Poonyth, Daneswar, 2005. "Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Jenny Aker, 2008. "Rainfall Shocks, Markets, and Food Crises: Evidence from the Sahel," Working Papers 157, Center for Global Development.
    6. Molua, Ernest L., 2002. "Climate variability, vulnerability and effectiveness of farm-level adaptation options: the challenges and implications for food security in Southwestern Cameroon," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 529-545, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prosper Ebruvwiyo Edoja & Goodness C. Aye & Orefi Abu, 2016. "Dynamic relationship among CO2 emission, agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1204809-120, December.
    2. Sassi, Maria, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124111, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    3. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    4. Leandro De Magalhães & Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2016. "Consumption and Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 16/677, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 07 Oct 2016.
    5. Cook, Aaron M. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob E. & Sesmero, Juan P., 2013. "How do African households adapt to climate change? Evidence from Malawi," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150507, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Unknown, 2013. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 09, Number 1, 2013," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 140-140.
    9. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    10. Leandro DE MAGALHÃES & Dongya KOH & Räul SANTAEULILA-LLOPIS, 2019. "The Cost of Consumption Smoothing: Less Schooling and less Nutrition," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 181-208, September.
    11. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Trade liberalization in the bio-economy: coping with a new landscape," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 173-182, November.
    12. Miura, Ken & Sakurai, Takeshi, 2021. "News from the Sky: An Empirical Test of Forward-Looking Behavior Among Zambian Farmers," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315161, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Tiziano Distefano & Guido Chiarotti & Francesco Laio & Luca Ridolfi, 2018. "Spatial distribution of the international food prices: unexpected randomness and heterogeneity," SEEDS Working Papers 0118, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2018.
    14. World Bank, 2001. "Risk Management in South Asia : A Poverty Focused Approach," World Bank Publications - Reports 15449, The World Bank Group.
    15. Song, Chunxiao & Liu, Ruifeng & Oxley, Oxley & Ma, Hengyun, 2018. "The adoption and impact of engineering-type measures to address climate change: evidence from the major grain-producing areas in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), October.
    16. Monica Ospina, 2010. "CCT programs for consumption insurance: evidence from Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10612, Universidad EAFIT.
    17. Paul Gertler & Jonathan Gruber, 2002. "Insuring Consumption Against Illness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 51-70, March.
    18. Cecilia Bellora & Jean-Marc Bourgeon, 2014. "Agricultural Trade, Biodiversity Effects and Food Price Volatility," Working Papers hal-01052971, HAL.
    19. Štěpán Chrz & Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2014. "Modelování provázanosti trhů potravin, biopaliv a fosilních paliv [Modeling Interconnections within Food, Biofuel, and Fossil Fuel Markets]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 117-140.
    20. BARRIOS, Salvador & BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2003. "Dry times in Africa: Rainfall and Africa's growth performance," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Food prices; Stochastic approach; Sudan; Q18; Q54;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:19-32:10.1007/s11294-012-9380-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.