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Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption in Industrial and Developing Countries

  • Schclarek, Alfredo

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

This paper empirically studies the effects of fiscal policy shocks on private consumption. Further, it tries to determine if the initial conditions of the economy, such as the financing needs of the government or previous fiscal deficits, affect that relationship. We use yearly data between 1970 and 2000 for forty countries, of which 19 are industrialized and 21 are developing countries. In general, the estimation results seem to indicate that government consumption shocks have Keynesian effects for both industrial and developing countries. In the case of tax shocks, the evidence is mixed. Furthermore, there is no evidence that favor the hypothesis of expansionary fiscal consolidations.

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File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP03_20.pdf
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Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003:20.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2003
Date of revision: 30 Sep 2005
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_020
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en

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  1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
  3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
  4. Bas van Aarle & Harry (ed.) Garretsen, 2001. "Keynesian, Non-Keynesian or No Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes? The EMU Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 570, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  6. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "New Results in Support of the Fiscal Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 288-304, August.
  7. repec:taf:emetrv:v:10:y:1991:i:2:p:235-252 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-41, September.
  9. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  11. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
  13. Jönsson, Kristian, 2004. "Fiscal Policy Regimes and Household Consumption," Working Papers 2004:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  14. repec:taf:applec:v:26:y:1994:i:6:p:635-40 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Mcleer, M. & Mckenzie, C.R., 1989. "When Are Two Step Estimators Efficient?," Papers 179, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  16. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
  17. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
  18. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Robert P. Hagemann & Nicola Sartor, 1990. "Indicators of Fiscal Policy: A Re-Examination," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 78, OECD Publishing.
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