IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/18-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Jaccard

    (European Central Bank)

  • Frank Smets

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Many southern European economies experience large capital inflows during periods of expansion that are followed by abrupt capital flow reversals when a recession hits. This paper studies the dynamics of cross-border flows between the North and South of Europe in a two-country DSGE model with incomplete international asset markets. Over the business cycle, the direction of capital flows between the two regions can be explained by a model in which common shocks have asymmetric effects on debtor and creditor economies. This mechanism explains why aggregate consumption is more volatile in the South than in the North and generates a higher welfare cost of business cycle fluctuations in the region that experiences procyclical net capital inflows. We also study the adjustment to asymmetric financial shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2019.08.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2019.08.002
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2019.08.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-166, Summer.
    2. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
    5. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
    6. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    7. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864, Elsevier.
    8. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    9. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166.
    10. House, Christopher L. & Proebsting, Christian & Tesar, Linda L., 2020. "Austerity in the aftermath of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 37-63.
    11. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    12. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Thomas Philippon & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-81.
    14. Prades, Elvira & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2012. "Capital liberalization and the US external imbalance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 36-49.
    15. Ignacio Lopez, Jose & Mengus, Eric & Challe, Edouard, 2016. "Southern Europe's Institutional Decline," HEC Research Papers Series 1148, HEC Paris.
    16. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-137.
    17. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    18. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
    19. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    20. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    21. Finn, Mary G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1990. "Intertemporal asset-pricing relationships in barter and monetary economies An empirical analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 431-451, June.
    22. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    23. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2001. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 5, pages 170-207, Palgrave Macmillan.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
    25. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    26. Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-184.
    27. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
    28. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-15.
    29. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    30. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    31. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    32. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    33. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-436, June.
    34. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Reinhold, Elisa & Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2016. "What's so special about specialization in the euro area?," Occasional Paper Series 168, European Central Bank.
    35. Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Euro Area Periphery and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 278-308, April.
    36. Lane, Philip, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 9493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    38. Frédéric Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Frank Smets, 2016. "Booms and Banking Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 489-538.
    39. Lau, Sie Ting & Ng, Lilian & Zhang, Bohui, 2010. "The world price of home bias," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 191-217, August.
    40. Holman, Jill A, 1998. "GMM Estimation of a Money-in-the-Utility-Function Model: The Implications of Functional Forms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 679-698, November.
    41. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    42. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 281-323, April.
    43. Luigi Pistaferri, 2003. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labor Supply," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(3), pages 729-754, July.
    44. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    45. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    46. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Tillmann, Peter, 2019. "International capital flows, external assets and output volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 242-255.
    47. Sergio de Ferra, 2021. "External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows, and Sovereign Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 347-402.
    48. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    49. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    50. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1990. "On the 'discount' factor in growth economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 43-47, January.
    51. Boileau, Martin, 1999. "Trade in capital goods and the volatility of net exports and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 347-365, August.
    52. Mathias Hoffmann & Michael U Krause & Thomas Laubach, 2019. "The Expectations-driven US Current Account," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 897-924.
    53. Ivan Jaccard, 2014. "Asset Returns and Labor Supply in a Production Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 889-919, August.
    54. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    55. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
    56. Sergio de Ferra, 0. "External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows, and Sovereign Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 347-402.
    57. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    58. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    59. Garett Jones (ed.), 2016. "Banking Crises," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-55379-9, December.
    60. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    61. Moshammer, Edmund & Pierluigi, Beatrice & Masuch, Klaus, 2016. "Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe," Working Paper Series 1963, European Central Bank.
    62. Cole, Harold, 1988. "Financial Structure and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 237-259, May.
    63. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    64. Arvanitis, Athanasios V & Mikkola, Anne, 1996. "Asset-Market Structure and International Trade Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 67-70, May.
    65. Masuch, Klaus & Moshammer, Edmund & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2016. "Institutions and Growth in Europe," CEPS Papers 11482, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    66. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    67. Ivan Jaccard, 2018. "Asset Pricing and the Propagation of Macroeconomic Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 436-486.
    68. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, June.
    69. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    70. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Philippon, Thomas & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2016. "The analytics of the Greek crisis: celebratory centenary issue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Euro Area Periphery and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 278-308, April.
    2. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    3. Perotti, Enrico & Soons, Oscar, 2019. "The Political Economy of a Diverse Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 13987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sergio de Ferra, 2021. "External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows, and Sovereign Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 347-402.
    5. Antonia Díaz, 2020. "Common Fiscal Capacity Is Needed to Strengthen Risk Sharing," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(4), pages 215-219, July.
    6. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2021. "News-driven international credit cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Antonia Díaz, 2021. "The EU Budget and the Role of Public Goods," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(02), pages 35-38, March.
    8. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2021. "Convergence, divergence, or multiple steady states? New evidence on the institutional development within the European Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 860-884.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaccard, Ivan & Smets, Frank, 2017. "Structural asymmetries and financial imbalances in the eurozone," Working Paper Series 2076, European Central Bank.
    2. Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Euro Area Periphery and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 278-308, April.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Ivan Jaccard, 2024. "Monetary Asymmetries Without (And With) Price Stickiness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1003-1047, May.
    5. Martinez, Joseba & Philippon, Thomas & Sihvonen, Markus, 2022. "Does a currency union need a capital market union?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.
    7. Jaccard, Ivan, 2018. "Stochastic discounting and the transmission of money supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2174, European Central Bank.
    8. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," SciencePo Working papers hal-03391984, HAL.
    9. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
    10. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sophie Piton, 2017. "Economic Integration and the Non-tradable Sector: The European Experience," 2017 Papers ppi361, Job Market Papers.
    13. Yao, Wen, 2019. "International business cycles and financial frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 283-291.
    14. Mario J. Crucini, 2006. "International Real Business Cycles," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0617, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jaccard, Ivan, 2021. "Leveraged property cycles," Working Paper Series 2539, European Central Bank.
    17. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    18. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    19. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    20. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    21. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, June.
    22. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-border financial markets; International business cycle; Financial frictions; Composite habits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.