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BKK the EZ Way: International Long-Run Growth News and Capital Flows

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  • Ric Colacito
  • Max Croce
  • Steven Ho
  • Philip Howard

Abstract

We study the response of international investment flows to short- and long-run growth news. Among developed G7 countries, positive long-run news for domestic productivity induces a net outflow of investments, in contrast to the effects of short-run growth shocks. We document that a standard Backus, Keho, and Kydland (1994) (BKK) model fails to reproduce this novel empirical evidence. We augment this model with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences (EZ-BKK) and characterize the resulting recursive risk-sharing scheme. The response of international capital flows in the EZ-BKK model is consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ric Colacito & Max Croce & Steven Ho & Philip Howard, 2018. "BKK the EZ Way: International Long-Run Growth News and Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3416-3449, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:11:p:3416-49
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141123
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Macroeconomics > Economic Fluctuations > Real Business Cycle Theory > International RBC

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    Cited by:

    1. Gavazzoni, Federico & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2020. "International R&D spillovers and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 330-354.
    2. Engel, Charles & Bianchi, Javier & Bigio, Saki, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. David Dillenberger & Daniel Gottlieb & Pietro Ortoleva, 2017. "Stochastic Impatience and the Separation of Time and Risk Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-026, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 05 Jul 2020.
    5. Jean-Jacques Forneron & Liang Zhong, 2023. "Convexity Not Required: Estimation of Smooth Moment Condition Models," Papers 2304.14386, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    6. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2020. "Why are exchange rates so smooth? A household finance explanation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 129-144.
    7. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3097-3138, December.
    8. Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe & Pierlauro Lopez & Fabrizio Perri, 2025. "A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 33441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis, 2022. "Local versus global factors weighing on stock market returns during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    10. Maurer, Thomas & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2021. "Entangled risks in incomplete FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-165.
    11. George A. Alessandria & Carter B. Mix, 2021. "Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 28904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mariano Croce & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen, 2022. "SONOMA: a Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance," International Finance Discussion Papers 1349, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Wang, Wenhao & Xu, Tao & Liu, Xiaoyi & Sun, Yongkun, 2023. "FDI inflows and income inequality: A Schumpeterian economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 805-820.
    15. Jacek Rothert & Alexander McQuoid & Katherine Smith, 2022. "Foreign direct investment over the international business cycle," GRAPE Working Papers 76, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    16. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    17. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Riccardo Colacito, 2019. "The Term Structures of Coentropy in International Financial Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3541-3558, August.
    18. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    19. El-Shagi, Makram, 2023. "Productivity shocks and capital flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    20. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    21. Jiang, Zhengyang & Richmond, Robert J., 2023. "Origins of international factor structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-26.
    22. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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