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Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises

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  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Schäfer, Dorothea
  • Stephan, Andreas

Abstract

This paper studies the reaction of the Euro's value against major currencies to sovereign rating announcements from Moody's, S&P and Fitch CRAs during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2010–2012 based on event study methodology combined with GARCH models. We also analyze how the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish government long-term bonds were affected by CRA announcements. Our results reveal that CRA downgrades, watchlist and outlook announcements had no impact on the value of the Euro currency but increased exchange rate volatility. At the same time, downgrades as well as negative outlook announcements increased the yields of French, Italian, and Spanish bonds and even affected the German bond's yields. This shows that the monetary union has led to a breakdown of the consequences of the rating shocks between currency value and sovereign bond yields. The reason is that part of the rating shock is absorbed by an internal repricing of sovereign bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:24:y:2016:i:c:p:117-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2016.05.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosati, Nicoletta & Bellia, Mario & Matos, Pedro Verga & Oliveira, Vasco, 2020. "Ratings matter: Announcements in times of crisis and the dynamics of stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    3. Deena Zaidi, 2015. "Eurozone Debt Crisis and Regulation of Credit Rating Agencies," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 99-111.
    4. Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
    5. Oana Mihaela MARIOARA (ORHEIAN), 2015. "Sovereign Risk And Cds. The Case Of Romania," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 7, pages 51-56, April.
    6. Demoussis, Michael & Drakos, Konstantinos & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Eurozone SMEs Credit Rationing," MPRA Paper 76364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
    8. Alexandra Popescu & Camelia Turcu, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk in Europe: an MES and CES Approach," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(6), pages 899-925.
    9. Michael Demoussis & Konstantinos Drakos & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2017. "The impact of sovereign ratings on euro zone SMEs’ credit rationing," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 745-764, October.
    10. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2017. "How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: Cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 200-214.
    11. Kenourgios, Dimitrios & Umar, Zaghum & Lemonidi, Paraskevi, 2020. "On the effect of credit rating announcements on sovereign bonds: International evidence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 58-71.
    12. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    13. Klusak, Patrycja & Thornton, John & Uymaz, Yurtsev, 2020. "Do personal connections improve sovereign credit ratings?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    14. Klusak, Patrycja & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2019. "The impact of ESMA regulatory identifiers on the quality of ratings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Kraemer, Moritz & Klusak, Patrycja & Vu, Huong, 2020. "First-mover disadvantage - The sovereign ratings mousetrap," CEPS Papers 26352, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    16. Stefanos Ioannou, 2017. "Credit Rating Downgrades and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows in the Eurozone," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-36, October.
    17. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agencies; Euro crisis; Sovereign debt; Euro exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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