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Europe’s Trade Surplus, International Relative Prices, and the Productivity Growth Gap

Author

Listed:
  • Ifrim, Adrian
  • Kollmann, Robert
  • Pfeiffer, Philipp
  • Ratto, Marco
  • Roeger, Werner

Abstract

The Euro Area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world, are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts, such as declining home bias and falling import prices, have offset the appreciation pressures from the productivity-growth gap. Weak domestic investment is partly driven by global forces, highlighting the limits of purely demand-based explanations and associated policy prescriptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ifrim, Adrian & Kollmann, Robert & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2025. "Europe’s Trade Surplus, International Relative Prices, and the Productivity Growth Gap," MPRA Paper 126077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:126077
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Adrian Ifrim & Robert Kollmann & Philipp Pfeiffer & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2025. "Persistent Global Growth Differences and Euro Area Adjustment: Real Activity, Trade and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES 2025-11, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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