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Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labour Supply

  • Pistaferri, Luigi

We address the question of how labour supply responds to anticipated wage growth, unanticipated wage growth, and wage risk. We use the 1989-93 panel section of the Bank of Italy SHIW, which collects individual-based quantitative expectation of future wage growth. The use of subjective expectations has several advantages. First, subjective expectations provide information on the evolution and riskiness of future wages that the econometrician may never hope to observe. Second, they allow to control directly for the forecast error, thus avoiding inconsistency in short panels. Finally, controlling for anticipated and unanticipated wage changes avoids the need of specifying instruments for the growth rate of wages, which is usually hard to predict. We find that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is precisely estimated and slightly larger than previous micro estimates. A parametric permanent innovation in wages impacts positively the rate of growth of labour supply. The impact of wage risk is consistent with the theory, but of negligible magnitude.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3628.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3628
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  1. Altonji, Joseph G, 1986. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S176-S215, June.
  2. Casey B. Mulligan, . "Pecuniary and Nonpecuniary Incentives to Work in the U.S. During World War II," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 95-3, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  3. Luigi Pistaferri, 1998. "Superior Information, Income Shocks and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 07, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 1997. "Using Subjective Income Expectations to Test for Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Predicted Income Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Francine D. Blau & Adam J. Grossberg, 1989. "Wage and Employment Uncertainty and the Labor Force Participation Decisions of Married Women," NBER Working Papers 3081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
  11. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  12. Bover, Olympia, 1989. "Estimating Intertemporal Labour Supply Elasticities Using Structural Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1026-39, December.
  13. Bernheim, B Douglas & Levin, Lawrence, 1989. "Social Security and Personal Saving: An Analysis of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 97-102, May.
  14. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct.
  16. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1981. "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1059-85, December.
  17. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Economic Analysis of Social Interactions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 115-136, Summer.
  18. Casey B. Mulligan, . "The Intertemporal Substitution of Work--What Does the Evidence Say?," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 95-11, Chicago - Population Research Center.
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