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The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes

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  • Ila Patnaik

    (NIPFP)

  • Ajay Shah

Abstract

China and India have both attempted distorting the exchange rate in order to foster exports-led growth. This is described as the Bretton Woods II framework, where developing countries buy bonds in the US and keep undervalued exchange rates, in order to foster export-led growth. The costs and benefits of this approach need to factor in the extent to which monetary policy is distorted by the pursuit of exchange rate policy. In this paper, we start by identifying dates of structural change, and the characteristics of the de facto exchange rate regime, for both countries. These results utilise recent developments in the econometrics of structural change. We then examine business cycle conditions and the short-term rate (expressed in real terms) in both India and China. We find that through the great business cycle boom of the early 2000s, both countries followed expansionary monetary policy. This is consistent with the idea that de facto exchange rate pegging induces a loss of monetary policy autonomy. By following expansionary monetary policy at a time of buoyant business cycle conditions, in both countries, monetary policy contributed to exacerbating instability of GDP; it helped exacerbate both boom and bust. Capital flows and conditions on currency markets changed profoundly from late 2007 onwards. Hence, this paper is primarily focused on the period from 1998 till 2007, the period where both countries were trying to use monetary policy to obtain exchange rate undervaluation. These difficulties need to be brought into the assessment of the Bretton Woods II regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2009. "The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22975, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2011. "China and India: Openness, Trade and Effects on Economic Growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 129-154, June.
    2. Almas Heshmati & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2010. "Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Case of Chinese Provinces," TEMEP Discussion Papers 201054, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), revised Feb 2010.
    3. Prasad Bal, Debi & Narayan Rath, Badri, 2015. "Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 149-156.
    4. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity," Chapters,in: Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Shirai, Sayuri, 2009. "世界経済危機とグローバル・マネーの変動 ―国際経済秩序へのインプリケーションー
      [Global Economic Crisis and Movements of Cross-Border Capital Flows ―Implication to the Global Economic Order―]
      ," MPRA Paper 18619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Did the Indian Capital Controls Work as a Tool of Macroeconomic Policy?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 439-464, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; China; India; Bretton Woods II framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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