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What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

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  • Miron, Jeffrey A
  • Beaulieu, J Joseph

Abstract

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that, in many instances, identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about nonseasonal fluctuations. The authors show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. They also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries, capacity constraints appear to bind. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Miron, Jeffrey A & Beaulieu, J Joseph, 1996. "What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 54-66, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:54-66
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    Cited by:

    1. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.
    2. Price, Brendan & Wasserman, Melanie, 2022. "The Summer Drop in Female Employment," CEPR Discussion Papers 17354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. RUSSO, Giuseppe & VEREDAS, David, 2000. "Institutional rigidities and employment rigidity in the Italian large industrial firms," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2000048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 135-155.
    5. Andrea Caravaggio & Luigi De Cesare & Andrea Di Liddo, 2023. "A Differential Game for Optimal Water Price Management," Games, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani & Hitoshi Takehara & Yong Wang, 2012. "Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 507-522, March.
    7. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
    8. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April.
    10. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
    11. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2024. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Dick van Dijk 1 & Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 79-98, June.
    14. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. B. Candelon & A. Dupuy & L. Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of occupational unemployment rates in the United States: hysteresis or structural?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2483-2493.
    16. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Upjohn Working Papers 20-337, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    18. Hyung-Suk Choi & Doojin Ryu & Sangik Seok, 2017. "The turn-of-the-year effect in mutual fund flows," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 131-157, May.
    19. Wen Yi, 2004. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-40, June.
    20. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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