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What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

  • Miron, Jeffrey A
  • Beaulieu, J Joseph

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that, in many instances, identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about nonseasonal fluctuations. The authors show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. They also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries, capacity constraints appear to bind. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 54-66

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:54-66
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  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
  4. Spencer D. Krane & William L. Wascher, 1995. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February.
  6. Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," NBER Working Papers 2523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Beaulieu, J Joseph & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-56, May.
  8. Beaulieu, J Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 772-88, July.
  9. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing," Papers 0012, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  10. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior Be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-53, August.
  11. Cooper, Russell W. & Haltiwanger, John Jr., 1992. "Macroeconomic implications of production bunching : Factor demand linkages," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-127, October.
  12. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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