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What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

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  • Jeffrey A. Miron
  • J. Joseph Beaulieu

Abstract

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Miron & J. Joseph Beaulieu, 1995. "What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 5258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5258
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    1. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    2. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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    6. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 621-656.
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    3. RUSSO, Giuseppe & VEREDAS, David, 2000. "Institutional rigidities and employment rigidity in the Italian large industrial firms," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2000048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 135-155.
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    7. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
    8. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April.
    10. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
    11. Dick van Dijk 1 & Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 79-98, June.
    12. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. B. Candelon & A. Dupuy & L. Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of occupational unemployment rates in the United States: hysteresis or structural?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2483-2493.
    16. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2024. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120640, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Wen Yi, 2004. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-40, June.
    19. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    20. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Upjohn Working Papers 20-337, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    21. Hyung-Suk Choi & Doojin Ryu & Sangik Seok, 2017. "The turn-of-the-year effect in mutual fund flows," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 131-157, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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