Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect
From quarterly postwar US and French data, this paper provides evidence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment but not in final sales data. Actually, from a bounce-back augmented threshold model, it appears that i) the null hypothesis of no bounce-back effect is strongly rejected by the inventory investment data and ii) the one-step ahead forecasting performances of the models accounting for this bounce-back effect are well improved compared to linear or standard threshold autoregressions. This supports the conventional wisdom that inventory investment exacerbates aggregate fluctuations, in line with the recent theoretical models by, e.g., Wang and Wen (Wang, P., and Y. Wen. 2009. “Inventory Accelerator in General Equilibrium.” Working Paper 010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and Wang, Wen and Xu (Wang, P., Y. Wen, and Z. Xu. 2011. “When do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? An Analytical Approach to (s,s) Policies.” Working Paper 014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) which clearly predict a destabilizing role of inventory investment over the business cycle. By contrast, our empirical findings cast doubt on models based on the stockouts avoidance motive for holding inventories.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 17 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011.
"The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models,"
321, Banque de France.
- Bec Frederique & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-Switching models," THEMA Working Papers 2011-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Frédérique BEC & Othman BOUABDALLAH & Laurent FERRARA, 2011. "The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 2011-02, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2009.
"Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models,"
NBER Working Papers
14651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2013. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 249-276.
- Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2009. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," Staff Working Papers 09-6, Bank of Canada.
- Virgiliu Midrigan & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," 2008 Meeting Papers 487, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000.
"What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
- Mark Bils & James Kahn, 1998. "What inventory behavior tells us about business cycles," Research Paper 9817, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 1999. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 1999. "What inventory behavior tells us about business cycles," Staff Reports 92, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bils, M. & Kahn, J.A., 1996. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 428, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Cooper, Russell W. & Haltiwanger, John Jr., 1992.
"Macroeconomic implications of production bunching : Factor demand linkages,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-127, October.
- Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Macroeconomic Implications of Production Bunching: Factor Demand Linkages," Papers 0001, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2011. "On the Usefulness of the Diebold-Mariano Test in the Selection of Prediction Models," Economics Series 276, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2009.
"Inventories and Real Rigidities in New Keynesian Business Cycle Models,"
Staff Working Papers
09-9, Bank of Canada.
- Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2010. "Inventories and real rigidities in New Keynesian business cycle models," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-281, June.
- Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-679, September.
- James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005.
"Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Working Paper Series
0214, European Central Bank.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:17:y:2013:i:3:p:335-343:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.