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Seasonal Adjustment and Measuring Persistence in Output


  • Jaeger, Albert
  • Kunst, Robert M


We examine the robustness of persistence measurement to different seasonal adjustment procedures. The empirical analysis is based on U.S. data for real gross national product (GNP). Officially published data on U.S. GNP are seasonally adjusted by Census X-11. We find that this series gives significantly higher measures of persistence than GNP data adjusted by alternative seasonal adjustment methods. Some Monte Carlo evidence in support of this conclusion is also presented. Copyright 1990 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Jaeger, Albert & Kunst, Robert M, 1990. "Seasonal Adjustment and Measuring Persistence in Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 47-58, January-M.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:5:y:1990:i:1:p:47-58

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
    7. Taylor, John B & Uhlig, Harald, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. King, Stephen R, 1988. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 0234-0234, March.
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    10. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.
    11. John B. Taylor, 1989. "Policy Analysis With a Multicountry Model," NBER Working Papers 2881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramsay, James O. & Ramsey, James B., 2002. "Functional data analysis of the dynamics of the monthly index of nondurable goods production," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 327-344, March.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.
    4. Hassler Uwe & Demetrescu Matei, 2005. "Spurious Persistence and Unit Roots due to Seasonal Differencing: The Case of Inflation Rates / Künstliche Persistenz und Einheitswurzeln infolge saisonaler Differenzen: Das Beispiel Inflationsraten," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(4), pages 413-426, August.
    5. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    6. Paqué, Karl-Heinz, 1991. "Structural wage rigidity in West Germany 1950-1989: Some new econometric evidence," Kiel Working Papers 489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Rabindra Nepal and John Foster, 2016. "Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    8. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    9. Ghysels, Éric, 1994. "L’analyse économétrique et la saisonnalité," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 70(1), pages 43-62, mars.
    10. Lenz, Carlos, 2003. "A different look at the Census X-11 filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-6, April.
    11. Ermini, Luigi & Chang, Dongkoo, 1996. "Testing the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality under seasonal cointegration: The case of Korea," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 363-386, October.

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