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Why should Central Banks avoid the use of the underlying inflation indicator?

  • Marques, Carlos Robalo
  • Neves, Pedro Duarte
  • da Silva, Afonso Goncalves

This paper assesses the usefulness of the commonly used underlying inflation indicator, in light of the criteria proposed in Marques et al. (2000). Empirical evidence for a group of six countries strongly suggets that the use of underlying inflation as an indicator of trend inflation should be avoided.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-44GMG26-3/2/abfc326d84bdbc371609ba192d3e7e73
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 75 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 17-23

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:75:y:2002:i:1:p:17-23
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000. "Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators," Working Papers w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999. "Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9911, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
  4. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 261-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient inflation estimation," Working Paper 9707, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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