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Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach

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  • Winkelmann, Lars

Abstract

The publication of a projected path of future policy decisions by central banks is a controversially debated method to improve monetary policy guidance. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate the impact of the guidance strategy on the predictability of monetary policy. Using the example of Norway, the empirical investigation is based on jump probabilities of interest rates on central bank announcement days before and after the introduction of quantitative guidance. Within the standard semimartingale framework, we propose a new methodology to detect jumps. We derive a representation of the quadratic variation in terms of a wavelet spectrum. An adaptive threshold procedure on wavelet spectrum estimates aims at localizing jumps. Our main empirical result indicates that quantitative guidance significantly improves the predictability of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelmann, Lars, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2013-016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Starichkov, 2025. "Using Wavelets to Analyse the Dynamics of Inflation Processes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(1), pages 105-128, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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