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How big is the toolbox of a central banker? Managing expectations with policy-rate forecasts: Evidence from Sweden

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  • Åhl, Magnus

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

Some central banks have decided to publish forecasts of their policy rates. Can such forecasts manage market expectations of future policy rates? I use regression analysis on Swedish data to conclude that the answer is yes. The published Riksbank forecasts affect expectations of the future repo rate up to a horizon of approximately a year and a half. However, the response of market expectations to a surprise in the announced repo-rate path is not one-to-one, but is estimated to be less than half of the surprise and decreasing with the forecast horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Åhl, Magnus, 2017. "How big is the toolbox of a central banker? Managing expectations with policy-rate forecasts: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 339, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk, 2020. "Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning," Working Paper Series 2426, European Central Bank.
    3. Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Ozer Karagedikli & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Quantitative or Qualitative Forward Guidance: Does it Matter?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 491-503, December.
    4. R. Erasmus & H. Hollander, 2020. "A Forward Guidance Indicator For The South African Reserve Bank: Implementing A Text Analysis Algorithm," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 41-72, December.
    5. Oliver de Groot & Falk Mazelis & Roberto Motto & Annukka Ristiniemi, "undated". "A Toolkit for Computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," Working Papers 202112, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    6. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Jonung, Lars, 2019. "The Tyranny of the Tenths. The Rise and Gradual Fall of Forward Guidance in Sweden 2007-2018," Working Papers 2019:14, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    7. Alex Isakov & Petr Grishin & Oleg Gorlinsky, 2018. "Fear of Forward Guidance," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 84-106, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy-rate path; monetary-policy expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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