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Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning

Author

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  • de Groot, Oliver
  • Mazelis, Falk

Abstract

This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock transmissions. We describe four scenarios regarding how agents incorporate information about future interest rate announcements: “inattention”, “credibility”, “finite planning horizon”, and “learning”. The methodology consists of describing a single loading matrix that augments the equilibrium decision rules and can be applied to any standard DSGE, including large-scale policy-institution models. Finally, we provide conditions under which the forward guidance puzzle is resolved. JEL Classification: C63, E32, E52

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk, 2020. "Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning," Working Paper Series 2426, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202426
    Note: 2712344
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2426~89ccf87cbc.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    2. Michael Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 1-15, July.
    3. Åhl, Magnus, 2017. "How big is the toolbox of a central banker? Managing expectations with policy-rate forecasts: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 339, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    5. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoffel, Kai & de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2020. "Using forecast-augmented VAR evidence to dampen the forward guidance puzzle," Working Paper Series 2495, European Central Bank.
    2. de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2021. "A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," Working Paper Series 2555, European Central Bank.
    3. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel, 2020. "Interest rate pegs and the reversal puzzle: On the role of anticipation," Discussion Papers 50/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Karel Musil & Stanislav Tvrz & Jan Vlcek, 2021. "News versus Surprise in Structural Forecasting Models: Central Bankers' Practical Perspective," Research and Policy Notes 2021/02, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; monetary policy; unconventional policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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