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Using forecast-augmented VAR evidence to dampen the forward guidance puzzle

Author

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  • Christoffel, Kai
  • de Groot, Oliver
  • Mazelis, Falk
  • Montes-Galdón, Carlos

Abstract

We estimate the effects of interest rate forward guidance (FG) using a parsimonious VAR, augmented with survey forecast data. The identification strategy of FG shocks via sign and zero restrictions is successfully tested by the recovery of true IRFs from simulated data. The identified shocks from the VAR suggest that FG has a stronger effect on macro variables and deviations are more instantaneous compared to the hump-shaped response following unanticipated changes in monetary policy. We apply this evidence to calibrate free parameters of an otherwise estimated DSGE model in order to dampen the FG Puzzle. JEL Classification: C54, E43, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Christoffel, Kai & de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2020. "Using forecast-augmented VAR evidence to dampen the forward guidance puzzle," Working Paper Series 2495, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202495
    Note: 85234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
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    5. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
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    9. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10495.
    10. Müller, Tobias & Christoffel, Kai & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2022. "Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk, 2020. "Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning," Working Paper Series 2426, European Central Bank.
    12. Xavier Gabaix, 2020. "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2271-2327, August.
    13. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    14. Sims, Eric, 2016. "What׳s news in News? A cautionary note on using a variance decomposition to assess the quantitative importance of news shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-60.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2021. "A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," Working Paper Series 2555, European Central Bank.
    2. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Hutchinson, John & Motto, Roberto, 2022. "Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment," Occasional Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
    3. Müller, Tobias & Christoffel, Kai & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2022. "Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; DSGE models; monetary policy; non-standard measures; survey forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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