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Are central banks' projections meaningful?

  • Galí, Jordi
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    Central banks' projections – i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path – are often criticized on the grounds that their assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. The present paper describes three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using the New Keynesian model as a reference framework. The three approaches are shown to generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393211001127
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

    Volume (Year): 58 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 537-550

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:58:y:2011:i:6:p:537-550
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
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    5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on Constant Interest Rate Projections," CEPR Discussion Papers 4126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
    11. Jordi Galí, 2009. "Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy: A note," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 61-68.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
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