IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bsl/wpaper/2018-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest

Author

Listed:
  • Lustenberger, Thomas
  • Rossi, Enzo

Abstract

We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both models, but are rarely supported by yield forecasts. In half of the countries, a higher precision of public information regarding interest rates increases welfare. During forward guidance, public information is less precise than private information.

Suggested Citation

  • Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2018. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest," Working papers 2018/05, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2018/05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/61497/1/20180307131855_5a9fd8afaced4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    2. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2011. "Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9621.
    3. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2017. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Working Papers 2017-12, Swiss National Bank.
    4. George-Marios Angeletos & Luigi Iovino & Jennifer La'O, 2016. "Real Rigidity, Nominal Rigidity, and the Social Value of Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 200-227, January.
    5. Amador, Manuel & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2012. "Learning from private and public observations of others╩╝ actions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 910-940.
    6. Qi Chen & Wei Jiang, 2006. "Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 319-355.
    7. Jonathan G. James & Phillip Lawler, 2011. "Optimal Policy Intervention and the Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1561-1574, June.
    8. Mauro F Roca, 2010. "Transparency and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," IMF Working Papers 10/91, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2017. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Working Papers 2017-12, Swiss National Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value of information; beauty contest; interest rate forecasts; bond yield forecasts; strategic forecasts; central bank transparency; forward guidance;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2018/05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WWZ). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wwzbsch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.