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Credible enough? Forward guidance and per-ceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

Author

Listed:
  • Pawel Baranowski

    (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz)

  • Pawel Gajewski

    (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz)

Abstract

Credible forward guidance should reduce the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Pawel Baranowski & Pawel Gajewski, 2015. "Credible enough? Forward guidance and per-ceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
  • Handle: RePEc:ann:wpaper:2/2015
    as

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    File URL: http://repozytorium.uni.lodz.pl:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11089/6678/LEWP_2_2015_P.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Do people understand monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-123.
    2. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
    3. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Nunes, Ricardo, 2012. "Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 135-149.
    4. Dennis, Richard, 2014. "Imperfect credibility and robust monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 218-234.
    5. Caraiani, Petre, 2013. "Comparing monetary policy rules in CEE economies: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 233-246.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    2. repec:kap:compec:v:52:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-017-9678-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2018. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," Staff Working Papers 18-2, Bank of Canada.
    4. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:631:p:523-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1370-y is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:631:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bogdan CAPRARU & Norel Ionut MOISE & Andrei RADULESCU, 2015. "The Monetary Policy Of The National Bank Of Romania In The Inflation Targeting Era. A Taylor Rule Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 16, pages 91-102, December.
    8. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    minimum wages; survey data; forward guidance; Taylor rule; expectations.;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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