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Comparing monetary policy rules in CEE economies: A Bayesian approach

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  • Caraiani, Petre

Abstract

Using the Bayesian approach, a small open economy DSGE model was estimated using a sample of quarterly data for three Central and Eastern Europe economies, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The hypothesis that central banks react to exchange rate movements was tested using posterior odds ratio. For these economies, evidence was found that central banks reacted to exchange rate changes. Evidence of similar monetary policy characterized by moderate or low gradualism as well as an active and conservative monetary policy was also found, for the selected countries. When a richer DSGE model featuring habit formation and imperfect pass-through is estimated, the results are generally similar. The inclusion of exchange rate in Taylor rule can also drastically change the dynamics of inflation and output following certain shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2013. "Comparing monetary policy rules in CEE economies: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 233-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:233-246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.045
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    Cited by:

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    3. Paweł Baranowski & Paweł Gajewski, 2016. "Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland's policy rule," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 89-92, February.
    4. Valeriu Nalban, 2015. "A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    5. Alina BOBAŞU & Bogdan MURARAȘU, 2021. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a DSGE Model for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-21, June.
    6. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2014. "The impact of the recent global crisis on the prioritization of central banks final objectives. A structural approach in the context of Central and Eastern European states," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(2), pages 51-76, September.
    7. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian models; Small open economy; Monetary policy; Taylor rules; Bayesian methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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