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Evaluating Exchange Rate Management An Application to Korea

  • David Parsley

    (Vanderbilt University, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Helen Popper

    (Santa Clara University, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

This paper uses data-rich estimation techniques to study monetary policy in an open economy. We apply the techniques to a small, forward-looking model and explore the importance of the exchange rate in the monetary policy rule. This approach allows us to discern whether a monetary authority targets the exchange rate per se, or instead simply responds to the exchange rate in order to achieve its other objectives. The approach also removes a downward bias on the estimate of the extent of inflation targeting. We find that this bias is important in the case of Korea, a de jure inflation targeter. In contrast to previous studies, our findings suggest that the Bank of Korea actively targets inflation, not the exchange rate. Apparently, the exchange rate has been only indirectly important in Korea's monetary policy.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 282009.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:282009
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  1. Soyoung Kim & Yung Chul Park, 2006. "Inflation targeting in Korea: a model of success?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 140-164 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  5. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  6. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
  7. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  9. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  10. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Ball, Christopher P. & Reyes, Javier, 2008. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise? A broader perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 308-326, March.
  14. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  16. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  17. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  18. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Instrumental Variable Estimation In A Data Rich Environment," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1577-1606, December.
  19. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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