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The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: is the Taylor Rule an useful benchmark for the last decade?

  • Forte, Antonio

The Taylor rule has been used in many studies in order to analyse the monetary policies. In my work I focus on the Euro era and compare the ECB with other two central banks, the Fed and the BoE. A very interesting result comes out from the analysis: it seems that these central banks do not observe the inflation course before deciding about the variation of the interest rates. This result can be linked to two ideas: firstly, the use of stationary time series drops out the significance of the inflation gap as regressor; secondly, a really forward looking central bank focuses on other macroeconomic leading indicators instead of examining the realized or expected inflation gap.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19087/1/MPRA_paper_19087.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18309.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18309
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  1. Angeloni, Ignazio & Aucremanne, Luc & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 0597, European Central Bank.
  2. Laurence Ball & Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," NBER Working Papers 8785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Jens R. Clausen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2003, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
  6. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB experience: Frankfurt still matters!," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0070, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  8. Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2008. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them? ," Working Papers 006-08, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.
  9. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth; Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 05/89, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  12. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
  13. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, EconWPA.
  15. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  16. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Charles Engel, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Re-examination," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Antonio Forte, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  21. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, 04.
  22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  23. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2009. "Evaluating Exchange Rate Management An Application to Korea," Working Papers 282009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  24. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
  25. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB policy reaction function," Munich Reprints in Economics 19941, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  26. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB Experience: Frankfurt Still Matters!," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(2), pages 147-170, 07.
  27. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2002. "ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 02008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
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