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The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: is the Taylor Rule an useful benchmark for the last decade?

  • Forte, Antonio

The Taylor rule has been used in many studies in order to analyse the monetary policies. In my work I focus on the Euro era and compare the ECB with other two central banks, the Fed and the BoE. A very interesting result comes out from the analysis: it seems that these central banks do not observe the inflation course before deciding about the variation of the interest rates. This result can be linked to two ideas: firstly, the use of stationary time series drops out the significance of the inflation gap as regressor; secondly, a really forward looking central bank focuses on other macroeconomic leading indicators instead of examining the realized or expected inflation gap.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18309.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18309
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  1. Laurence Ball & Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "The Fed and the New Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive 465, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series 0865, European Central Bank.
  3. Angeloni, Ignazio & Aucremanne, Luc & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 0597, European Central Bank.
  4. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB experience: Frankfurt still matters!," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0070, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  7. Jens Richard Clausen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2005. "Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(II), pages 213-246, June.
  8. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 05/89, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  14. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  15. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 05/148, International Monetary Fund.
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  17. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  19. Stephen Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2005. "Has the inflation process changed?," BIS Working Papers 185, Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2002. "ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 02008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  21. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02.
  22. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2009. "Evaluating Exchange Rate Management An Application to Korea," Working Papers 282009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  23. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, EconWPA.
  25. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  26. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  27. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB Experience: Frankfurt Still Matters!," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(2), pages 147-170, 07.
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