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European Integration and Labour Migration

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  • d'Artis Kancs
  • Julia Kielyte

Abstract

The present paper studies how European integration might affect the migration of workers in the enlarged EU. Unlike the reduced-form migration models, we base our empirical analysis on the theory of economic geography à la Krugman (1991), which provides an alternative modelling of migration pull and push factors. Parameters of the theoretical model are estimated econometrically using historical migration data. Our empirical findings suggest that European integration would trigger selective migration between the countries in the enlarged EU. In the Baltics, Lithuania would gain about 7.25% of the total work force. In the Visegrád Four, the share of the mobile labour force would increase the most in Hungary, 8.35%, compared to the pre-integration state. Our predictions for the East-West migration are moderate and lower than those of reduced-form models: between 5.44% (from the Baltics) and 3.61% (from the Visegrád Four) would emigrate to the EU North. Because migrants not only follow market potential, but also shape the region’s market potential, the long-run agglomeration forces are sufficiently weak to make a swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern in the enlarged EU very unlikely.

Suggested Citation

  • d'Artis Kancs & Julia Kielyte, 2010. "European Integration and Labour Migration," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_27, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2010_27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. d'Artis Kancs, 2011. "Labour migration in the enlarged EU: a new economic geography approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 171-188.
    2. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(1), pages 1-28.
    3. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2011. "Modelling the flow of knowledge and human capital: a framework of innovative capital," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 134-160.
    4. repec:bla:tvecsg:v:108:y:2017:i:6:p:854-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New economic geography; Market potential; Labour migration; Economic integration.;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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