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Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States

Author

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  • d’Artis Kancs
  • Julda Kielyte

Abstract

The free movement of workers is a highly controversial issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper estimates the potential migration and analyses socio-economic impacts of migration in the context of the EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic consequences for home and host countries? In order to answer these questions we draw on previous literature as well as on our empirical work. In the empirical analysis we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe. In particular, we estimate the future migration pressure, based on economic conditions in the Baltic States and Western Europe. Our empirical results suggest that depending on assumptions 3-5 percent of home countries working population might emigrate after opening labour markets in the old EU member states.

Suggested Citation

  • d’Artis Kancs & Julda Kielyte, 2002. "Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2002_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2002_04
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    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2002_04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D’Artis Kancs, 2005. "Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 2(1), pages 32-63, April.
    2. Kancs, d'Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "European Integration and Labour Migration," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 14, November.
    3. d'Artis Kancs, 2011. "Labour migration in the enlarged EU: a new economic geography approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 171-188.
    4. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(1), pages 1-28.
    5. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2011. "Modelling the flow of knowledge and human capital: a framework of innovative capital," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 134-160.
    6. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International labour migration; EU integration; panel data; econometric model;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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