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Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries


  • D’Artis Kancs

    () (London School of Economics, London, UK)


In this paper I develop an analytically solvable and structur-ally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE's integration with the EU. The main innovation of my ap-proach is that it endogenises both, explanatory variables and the migration rate. Model's parameters are estimated econometrically using a structural equation, which is de-rived entirely from the theoretical NEG model. My empirical findings advocate that there is enough evidence to predict a selective migration among the three Baltic States. However, labour mobility in the Baltic countries is sufficiently low to make the swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern very unlikely at this geographical level.

Suggested Citation

  • D’Artis Kancs, 2005. "Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 2(1), pages 32-63, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:mig:journl:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:32-63

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Matthieu Crozet, 2004. "Do migrants follow market potentials? An estimation of a new economic geography model," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-458, August.
    2. De New, John P & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1994. "Native Wage Impacts of Foreign Labor: A Random Effects Panel Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 177-192.
    3. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    4. Phillip B. Levine & David J. Zimmerman, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the welfare magnet debate using the NLSY," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 391-409.
    5. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "The empirics of agglomeration and trade," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics,in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 59, pages 2609-2669 Elsevier.
    6. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Occupational Mobility of Ethnic Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 58, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. d’Artis Kancs & Julda Kielyte, 2002. "Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2002_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M, 2001. "First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think," CEPR Discussion Papers 2803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zaka Ratsimalahelo, 2001. "Rank Test Based On Matrix Perturbation Theory," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    13. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs, 2007. "Blue Cards, Blue Prospects?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28.
    2. Kancs, D’Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?," European Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 133-154, May.
    3. James Anderson, 2015. "Migration of Labor in Europe: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 58(1), pages 40-65.
    4. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 31-61, January.
    5. Kancs, d'Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "European Integration and Labour Migration," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 14, November.
    6. Chen, Xi & Zhou, Bin & Zhong, Funing, 2010. "Do Consumers Really Care about Genetically Modified (GM) Food Label? What Do We Know? What Else Should We Know?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 32-56.
    7. d'Artis Kancs, 2011. "Labour migration in the enlarged EU: a new economic geography approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 171-188.
    8. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(1), pages 1-28.
    9. Nele van der Wielen & Jakub Bijak, 2015. "Welfare participation: A comparison between immigrants and natives in the United Kingdom," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 12(2), pages 113-123, May.
    10. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2011. "Modelling the flow of knowledge and human capital: a framework of innovative capital," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 134-160.
    11. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

    More about this item


    Migration ; Economic Geography ; European regions ; Agglomeration;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population


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