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Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries

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  • d’Artis Kancs

Abstract

In this paper we develop an analytically solvable and structurally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE’s integration with the EU. The main innovation of our approach is that it endogenises both explanatory variables and the migration rate. The underlying structural parameters are estimated econometrically using a migration equation, which is derived entirely from the theoretical NEG model. Our simulations show that even relatively moderate changes in some of the explanatory variables (such as transport costs) can actuate unpredictable changes (both in sign and magnitude) in other explanatory variables (such as wages). Keeping these explanatory variables fixed, as in reduced-form models, would produce biased results. Our empirical findings advocate that there is enough evidence to predict a selective migration among the three Baltic States. However, labour mobility in the Baltic countries is sufficiently low to make the swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern very unlikely at this geographical level.

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  • d’Artis Kancs, 2005. "Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2005_01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2005_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs, 2007. "Blue Cards, Blue Prospects?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28.
    2. James Anderson, 2015. "Migration of Labor in Europe: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 58(1), pages 40-65.
    3. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 31-61, January.
    4. Julio Martinez-Galarraga & Elisenda Paluzie & Jordi Pons & Javier Silvestre & Daniel A. Tirado, 2021. "New economic geography and economic history: a survey of recent contributions through the lens of the Spanish industrialization process," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 15(3), pages 719-751, September.
    5. Chen, Xi & Zhou, Bin & Zhong, Funing, 2010. "Do Consumers Really Care about Genetically Modified (GM) Food Label? What Do We Know? What Else Should We Know?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 32-56.
    6. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(1), pages 1-28.
    7. d’Artis Kancs, 2006. "The economic geography of labour migration: Competition, competitiveness and development," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2006_01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. Nele van der Wielen, 2015. "Welfare participation: A comparison between immigrants and natives in the United Kingdom," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 12(2), pages 113-123, May.
    9. repec:elg:eechap:14395_19 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    11. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2011. "Modelling the flow of knowledge and human capital: a framework of innovative capital," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 134-160.
    12. Kancs, D’Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?," European Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 133-154, May.
    13. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 31-61, January.
    14. Kancs, d'Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "European Integration and Labour Migration," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 14, November.
    15. Dzienis Anna Maria, 2019. "Modern interregional migration: evidence from Japan and Poland," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(1), pages 66-80, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; economic geography; European regions; integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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