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ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence

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Abstract

This paper estimates different monetary policy rules for the ECB with montly data during the period 1999.04-2002.02. The results show that the ECB exhibits a rather conservative behavior: a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate above its target brings about a 1,2 percentage point increase in the interest rate. Like the FED, its policy is influenced by real activity. The Bank also smoothes changes in interest rates over time. Despite the announced money growth "reference value", it does not reacts to changes in M3 growth rates.

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  • Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2002. "ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 02008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-02008
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    1. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 195-214.
    8. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 7-30.
    9. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 375-398, August.
    2. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, pages 1-31.
    3. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, pages 1-31.
    4. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    6. VAN POECK, André, 2009. "One money and fifteen needs inflation and output convergence in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2009001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    7. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; Taylor'srule; monetary policy; inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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