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Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule

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  • Sznajderska, Anna

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether the reaction function of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is asymmetric according to the level of inflation gap and the level of output gap. Moreover, we test whether these asymmetries might possibly stem from nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. Threshold models are applied and two cases of unknown and known threshold values are investigated. Our results show that the Polish central bank responds more strongly to the level inflation when the level of inflation is relatively high. We find very weak evidence that the level of inflation reacts more strongly to the output gap when the output gap is relatively high. Thus, the asymmetries in the monetary policy rule seem to indicate asymmetric preferences of the central bank.

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  • Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:547-556
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.045
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    3. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Policy in Inflation Targeting Developing Countries," ERC Working Papers 1702, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2017.
    4. Sorić, Petar & Lolić, Ivana & Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2019. "Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 64-74.
    5. Abdul RASHID & Farah WAHEED, 2021. "Forward-Backward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules: Derivation and Empirics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 71-92, December.
    6. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2018. "China's regime-switching monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 32-40.
    7. Alessandro Piergallini, 2019. "Nonlinear policy behavior, multiple equilibria and debt-deflation attractors," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 563-580, April.
    8. Paweł Baranowski & Paweł Gajewski, 2016. "Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland's policy rule," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 89-92, February.
    9. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina, 2015. "The behaviour of the bank lending channel when interest rates approach the zero lower bound: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 296-307.
    11. Tomasz Łyziak, 2016. "Do inflation expectations matter in a stylised New Keynesian model? The case of Poland," NBP Working Papers 234, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    12. MeiChi Huang, 2020. "A threshold unobserved components model of housing bubbles: timings and effectiveness of monetary policies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 887-908, August.
    13. Jens Klose, 2019. "Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output? Empirical Evidence for Four Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 31-49, January.
    14. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2017. "Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Inflation and Exchange Rate in Poland: Implications for Direct Inflation Targeting," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(4), pages 545-560, December.
    15. Klose, Jens, 2023. "Estimated monetary policy rules for the ECB with granular variations of forecast horizons for inflation and output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Pros, Cons and Credibility," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 523-541.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear Taylor rule; Nonlinear Phillips curve; Asymmetries; Threshold models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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