IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policywith a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

  • Orlando Gomes

    ()

    (Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Escola Superior de Comunicação Social and UNIDE-ERC)

  • Diana A. Mendes

    ()

    (ISCTE - Department of Quantitative Methods and UNIDE-StatMath)

  • Vivaldo M. Mendes

    ()

    (ISCTE - Department of Economics and UNIDE-ERC)

  • José Sousa Ramos

    (Technical University of Lisbon, IST, Department of Mathematics)

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy with sticky prices a la Calvo and forward looking behavior. In this paper we extend this standard model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. As the linear Phillips curve may be questioned on theoretical grounds and seems not to be favoured by empirical evidence, a similar procedure has already been undertaken in a series papers over the last few years, e.g., Schaling (1999), Semmler and Zhang (2004), Nobay and Peel (2000), Tambakis (1999), and Dolado et al. (2004). However, these papers were mainly concerned with the analysis of the problem of inflation bias, by deriving an interest rate rule which is nonlinear, leaving the issues of stability and the possible existence of endogenous cycles in such a framework mostly overlooked. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for both convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into a fully deterministic structure of the standard model produces significant changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy in the standard model. We should emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle—path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable and chaotic fixed points (endogenous cycles); (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem interesting. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to ination targeting, the inflation rate may have a lower mean and is certainly less volatile; secondly, for changes in the degree of price stickiness the results are not are clear cut as in the previous case, however, we can also observe that when such stickiness is high the inflation rate tends to display a somewhat larger mean and also higher volatility; and thirdly, it shows that the target values for ination and the output gap, both crucially aect the dynamics of the economy in terms of average values and volatility of the endogenous variables – e.g., the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility – while in the linear case only the inflation rate does so (obviously, only affecting in this case the level of the endogenous variables). Moreover, the existence of endogenous cycles due to chaotic motion may raise serious questions about whether the old dictum of monetary policy (that the Central Bank should conduct policy with discretion instead of commitment) is not still very much in the business of monetary policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://bru-unide.iscte.pt/RePEc/pdfs/ERCwp1508.pdf
File Function: Second draft, 2006
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL) in its series Working Papers Series 1 with number ercwp1508.

as
in new window

Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isc:iscwp1:ercwp1508
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://bru-unide.iscte.pt/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 19-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
  7. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 108, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Bennett T McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices," Discussion Papers 05, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  9. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2004. "Pitfalls in the Modelling of Forward-Looking Price Setting and Inverstment Behavior," Working Paper 2004/01, Norges Bank.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  11. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
  12. Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 201-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Seminar Papers 625, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  14. Karras, Georgios & Stokes, Houston H., 1999. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Evidence from prices, consumption, and investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 713-727.
  15. Zhang, Wenlang & Semmler, Willi, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules Under Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence, Adaptive Learning, And Robust Control," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(05), pages 651-681, November.
  16. Siu, Henry, 2006. "Time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity," Economics working papers siu-06-06-15-02-39-39, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 20 Jun 2006.
  17. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
  18. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  19. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
  20. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 1998. "Monetary Policy with a Convex Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," IMF Working Papers 98/21, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
  22. DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 2003-24, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  23. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences (new title: The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1280, CESifo Group Munich.
  24. Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus; Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
  26. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
  27. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  28. Tambakis Demosthenes N., 1999. "Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
  29. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
  30. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  31. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  33. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2004. "Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions," Economics Working Papers 773, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  34. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isc:iscwp1:ercwp1508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Henrique Monteiro)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.