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Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis

  • Orphanides, Athanasios

This paper provides a policymaker's perspective on some lessons from the recent financial crisis. It focuses on questions in three areas. First, what lessons can be drawn regarding the institutional framework for monetary policy? Has the experience changed the pre-crisis consensus that monetary policy is best performed by an independent central bank focused on achieving and maintaining price stability? Second, what lessons can be drawn regarding the monetary policy strategy that should be followed by a central bank? How activist should a central bank be in dampening macroeconomic fluctuations? Should the "output gap" serve as an important policy guide? Are there lessons regarding the stability-oriented approach followed by the ECB? How activist should a central bank be in tackling perceived asset price misalignments? Does the ECB's monetary analysis pillar help incorporate the pertinent information in formulating policy? Third, is monetary policy pursuing price stability enough to ensure overall stability in the economy? Or is there room for improvement regarding how central banks can contribute to financial stability? Should the role of monetary policy be seen as completely separate from the broader institutional environment governing financial markets and institutions in our economy? Or would greater central bank involvement in regulation and supervision pertaining to credit and finance allow better management of overall economic stability?

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7891.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7891
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  1. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Central Bank Misperceptions and the Role of Money in Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 6947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Donald L. Kohn, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices Revisited," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 31-44, Winter.
  4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary policy mistakes and the evolution of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, . "The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  8. William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards An Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  11. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  14. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1978. "Optimal demand policies against stagflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 736-782, December.
  15. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  17. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May.
  18. Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Yates, Tony, 2002. "Monetary policy and the zero bound to interest rates: a review," Working Paper Series 0190, European Central Bank.
  20. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
  21. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Clouse James & Henderson Dale & Orphanides Athanasios & Small David H. & Tinsley P.A., 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-65, September.
  23. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January.
  25. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  26. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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