Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2009. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 4, pages 115-144 Central Bank of Chile.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
References listed on IDEAS
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
- Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003.
"Robust monetary policy with competing reference models,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
- John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 291, Society for Computational Economics.
- Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Paper Series 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
- Taylor, John B., 1999.
"The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
- Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004.
"Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 201-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2003. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/40, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2002-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007.
"Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge,"
Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 4, pages 077-123 Central Bank of Chile.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 398, Central Bank of Chile.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 38, Society for Computational Economics.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," CEPR Discussion Papers 5664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2006-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Robert J. Tetlow, 2010. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: 'Robust' policies put to the test," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000.
"Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy,"
Journal of Economics and Business,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003.
"The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 2000. "The Performance Of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 203, Society for Computational Economics.
- Williams, John C. & Levin, Andrew T. & Wieland, Volker, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0068, European Central Bank.
- Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker & Williams, John C., 2003. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Andrew T. Levin & Volker W. Wieland & John C. Williams, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Levin & John C. Williams, 2000. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1781, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002.
"The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, "undated". "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003.
"Indicator variables for optimal policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
- Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Svensson, Lars & Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," Seminar Papers 688, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Working Paper Series 0012, European Central Bank.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005.
"Optimal Policy Projections,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
- Svensson, Lars O & Tetlow, Robert J, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," MPRA Paper 839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lars E. O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal policy projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005.
"Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
108, Society for Computational Economics.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006.
"Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 376-385, 04-05.
- Smets, Frank & Vestin, David & Gaspar, Vítor, 2006. "Adaptive learning, persistence, and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 644, European Central Bank.
- Milani, Fabio, 2007.
"Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
- Milton Friedman, 1947. "Lerner on the Economics of Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55, pages 405-405.
- Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999.
"Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
- Ann-Charlotte Eliasson & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 99/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 841, Society for Computational Economics.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005.
"Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
- Alex Cukierman & Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEIS Research Paper 26, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 3763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 2008.
"Evolution and Intelligent Design,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
- Thomas J Sargent, 2007. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001821, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999.
"Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty,"
NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew T. Levin & Volker W. Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006.
"A simple recursive forecasting model,"
Economics Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
- Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
- Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2004. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics," Working papers 19, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Laubach, 2001.
"Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
- Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002.
"Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003.
"Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
- Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John C. Williams, 2003.
"Simple rules for monetary policy,"
Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
- John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004.
"Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules,"
NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013.
"House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
- Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J. & Mendicino, Caterina, 2012. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," Dynare Working Papers 21, CEPREMAP.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: Implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper 2012/08, Norges Bank.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2012-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Beyer, Robert C. M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015.
"Schätzung des mittelfristigen Gleichgewichtszinses in den Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und dem Euro-Raum mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode,"
Working Papers
03/2015, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
- Beyer, Robert C. M. & Wieland, Volker, 2016. "Schätzung des mittelfristigen Gleichgewichtszinses in den Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und dem Euro-Raum mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode," IMFS Working Paper Series 100, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2012.
"Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations,"
NBER Chapters,in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 255-288
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary policy mistakes and the evolution of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2010-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 17080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2010. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 7892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beyer, Robert & Wieland, Volker, 2017.
"Instability, imprecision and inconsistent use of equilibrium real interest rate estimates,"
IMFS Working Paper Series
110, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Beyer, Robert & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Instability, imprecision and inconsistent use of equilibrium real interest rate estimates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
More about this item
JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.