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Schätzung des mittelfristigen Gleichgewichtszinses in den Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und dem Euro-Raum mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode

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  • Beyer, Robert C. M.
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

Schätzwerte mittelfristiger Gleichgewichtszinsen mit der Methode nach Laubach und Williams 2003) werden inzwischen vielfach in der Diskussion um die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik zitiert. Unter anderem wurden sie von Summers (2014a) als Evidenz für eine säkulare Stagnation angeführt und von Yellen (2015) zur Rechtfertigung der Nullzinspolitik verwendet. In diesem Papier nehmen wir eine umfangreiche Untersuchung und Sensitivitätsanalyse dieser Schätzwerte für die Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und den Euro-Raum vor. Aufgrund der hohen Unsicherheit und Sensitivität, die mit den Schätzwerten mittelfristiger Gleichgewichtszinsen mit der Laubach-Williams Methode und ähnlichen Ansätzen verbunden ist, sollten diese Schätzungen nicht den Ausschlag für entscheidende Weichenstellungen in der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik geben.

Suggested Citation

  • Beyer, Robert C. M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Schätzung des mittelfristigen Gleichgewichtszinses in den Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und dem Euro-Raum mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode," Working Papers 03/2015, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:032015
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    1. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:55:y:2017:i:6:p:1221-1238 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2016. "Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 147-154, July.
    3. Beyer, Robert & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Instability, imprecision and inconsistent use of equilibrium real interest rate estimates," IMFS Working Paper Series 110, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    5. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Johanna Garnitz & Christian Grimme & Atanas Hristov & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Reif &, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016/2017: Aufschwung in Deutschland geht in die zweite Halbzeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 21-57, June.
    6. Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2016. "Forward guidance and "lower for longer": The case of the ECB," CEPR Discussion Papers 11117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Atanas Hristov, 2016. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(1), pages 86-91, April.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2017. "Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1221-1238, November.

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