IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Jens Klose

We assess diff erences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate spreads and asset price infl ation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also likely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis. Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price infl ation, and money and credit growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price infl ation coeffi cient turns positive. Thus we are able to establish signifi cant diff erences in the parameters of the reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth, consumer and house price infl ation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we fi nd evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_10_166.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0166.

as
in new window

Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0166
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Hohenzollernstraße 1-3, 45128 Essen

Phone: (0201)8149-0
Fax: (0201)8149-200
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gruen, David & Plumb, Michael & Stone, Andrew, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," MPRA Paper 833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2005. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-307, December.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
  5. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2003. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Interest: a Euro-Area Perspective," Working Papers 84, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
  9. Paul Grauwe & Thomas Mayer & Karel Lannoo, 2008. "Lessons from the Financial Crisis: New Rules for Central Banks and Credit Rating Agencies?," Intereconomics- Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(5), pages 256-266, September.
  10. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
  11. Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
  13. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?," NBER Working Papers 14678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  15. DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, . "Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy," EcoMod2003 330700042, EcoMod.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.