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Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output

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  • Cukierman, Alex
  • Lippi, Francesco

Abstract

This Paper characterizes endogenous monetary policy when policymakers are uncertain about the extent to which movements in output and inflation are due to changes in potential output or to cyclical demand and cost shocks. We refer to this informational limitation as the ‘information problem’ (IP). Main results of the Paper are: 1. Policy is likely to be excessively loose (restrictive) for some time when there is a large decrease (increase) in potential output in comparison to a full information benchmark. This provides a partial but unified explanation for the inflation of the seventies and the price stability of the nineties. 2. Errors in forecasting potential output and the output gap are generally serially correlated. 3. A quantitative assessment, based on an empirical model of the US economy developed by Rudebusch and Svensson (1999) indicates that, during and following periods of large changes in potential output, the IP significantly affects the dynamics of inflation and output. 4. The increase in the Fed’s conservativeness between the seventies and the nineties, and a more realistic appreciation of the uncertainties surrounding potential output in the second period, imply that the IP problem had a stronger impact in the seventies than in the nineties.

Suggested Citation

  • Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 3763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2009. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 4, pages 115-144 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
    6. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
    7. Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Monetary policy with unobservedpotential output," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 258-275 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
    9. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Traficante, Guido, 2013. "The loss from uncertainty on policy targets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 175-182.
    10. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    11. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 4, pages 077-123 Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    13. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    14. Simona Delle Chiaie, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Potential Output Uncertainty: A Quantitative Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 94, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    15. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2007. "The Great Inflation of the 1970s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 713-731, March.
    16. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
    17. Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "Information variables for monetary policy in an estimated structural model of the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1256-1270, May.
    18. Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Robust monetary policy, optimal delegation and misspecified potential output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 244-247.
    19. repec:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9601-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2004. "The great inflation of the 1970s," Working Paper Series 336, European Central Bank.
    21. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    Keywords

    filtering; inflation; monetary policy; output gap; potential output;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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