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Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements

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  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Hubert, Paul

Abstract

Exploiting the “quiet period” before European Central Bank (ECB) announcements, this paper studies ECB-related content on X/Twitter to better understand how investors acquire information about upcoming monetary policy decisions in the absence of central bank signals. We first document that attention is endogenous, as tweet traffic positively correlates with the magnitude of subsequent monetary policy surprises. Second, when there is large disagreement about the economic outlook, more tweet traffic is associated with an improved accuracy of market expectations already during the quiet period, thereby leading to smaller monetary policy surprises. This suggests that information exchange can improve expectation formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2026. "Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:184:y:2026:i:c:s0014292125002910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105241
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    4. Chu, Xiaojun & Zhou, Haigang, 2026. "The impact of investor attention to the federal reserve on jumps in China’s stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Guy Aridor & Rafael Jiménez-Durán & Ro'ee Levy & Lena Song, 2024. "The Economics of Social Media," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1422-1474, December.
    6. Marmora, Paul, 2025. "The causal effect of limited attention to FOMC announcements," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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