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The Expectations of Others

Author

Listed:
  • Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman
  • Ina Hajdini
  • John Leer
  • Mathieu Pedemonte
  • Raphael Schoenle

Abstract

Based on a framework of memory and recall that accounts for social networks, we provide conditions under which social networks can amplify expectations. We provide evidence for several predictions of the model using a novel dataset on inflation expectations and social network connections: Inflation expectations in the social network are statistically significantly, positively associated with individual inflation expectations; the relationship is stronger for groups that share common demographic characteristics, such as gender, income, or political affiliation. An instrumental variable approach further establishes causality of these results while also showing that salient information transmits strongly through the network. Our estimates imply that the influence of the social network overall amplifies but does not destabilize inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman & Ina Hajdini & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Raphael Schoenle, 2023. "The Expectations of Others," Working Papers 23-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:96920
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202322
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    memory and recall; inflation expectations; social network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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