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Central Bank Forward Guidance and the Signal Value of Market Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Morris
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Central banks use forward guidance to steer market expectations of future monetary policy moves. At the same time, they rely on market prices to gauge the likely path of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. This two-way flow between market prices and forward guidance can create a circularity. Market signals may be rendered less informative when the central bank heeds market signals in formulating forward guidance, as those market signals reflect the diminished weight placed by market participants on their private signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Central Bank Forward Guidance and the Signal Value of Market Prices," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 572-577, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:108:y:2018:p:572-77
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20181081
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    Cited by:

    1. de Haan, Jakob & Hoogduin, Lex, 2024. "ECB communication policies: An overview and comparison with the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Prasanna Gai & Sherry X. Wu, 2023. "On Market‐Friendly Central Bankers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 238-252, June.
    3. Vedolin, Andrea & Leombroni, Matteo & , & Whelan, Paul, 2018. "Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 12970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gai, Prasanna & Lou, Edmund & Wu, Sherry X., 2020. "Targeted disclosure and monetary policy flexibility: A simple model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    6. Boris Hofmann & Dora Xia, 2022. "Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections," BIS Working Papers 1009, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 17773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Sylvérie Herbert, 2022. "State-dependent Central Bank Communication with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working papers 875, Banque de France.
    9. Li, Xiaoping & Wang, Nan & Duan, Jihong & Shi, Wenming, 2024. "Exchange rate stability and expectation management under heterogeneous expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    10. Caballero, Julián & Gadanecz, Blaise, 2024. "Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Hauk, Esther & Lanteri, Andrea & Marcet, Albert, 2021. "Optimal policy with general signal extraction," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 54-86.
    12. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    13. Jonathan G. James & Philip Lawler, 2024. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication and the Social Value of Public Information," Working Papers 2024-03, Swansea University, School of Management.
    14. Roy Trivedi, Smita & Ghosh, Saibal, 2025. "Do deeds match words? India’s monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 662-680.
    15. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2020. "Observing and Shaping the Market: The Dilemma of Central Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 1973-2005, December.
    16. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Soulemanou, Soulemanou, 2020. "Transparence des Banques Centrales et efficacité de la politique monétaire : quelles implications pour la Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale ? [Central Bank's Transparency and effectiveness of ," MPRA Paper 116436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2022. "Have Inflation Expectations Become Un-anchored? The Role of Oil Prices and Global Aggregate Demand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 149-192, June.
    18. Monica Jain & Walter Muiruri & Jonathan Witmer & Sharon Kozicki & Jeremy Harrison, 2023. "Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context," Discussion Papers 2023-2, Bank of Canada.
    19. Kawamura, Kohei & Kobashi, Yohei & Shizume, Masato & Ueda, Kozo, 2019. "Strategic central bank communication: Discourse analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 230-250.
    20. Picault, Matthieu & Raffestin, Louis, 2020. "The other side of forward guidance: Are central banks constrained by financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    21. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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