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A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

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  • Robert W. Rich
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an economically insignificant relationship that is robust to changes in the volatility of the forecasting environment. This provides further evidence that disagreement is not a reliable proxy for uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1813
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201813
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    Cited by:

    1. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Jonas Dovern & Alexander Glas & Geoff Kenny, 2024. "Testing for differences in survey‐based density expectations: A compositional data approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1104-1122, September.
    4. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
    8. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 96-116.
    9. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    10. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
    11. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "Firm Level Expectations and Macroeconomic Conditions: Underpinnings and Disagreement," CAMA Working Papers 2024-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    13. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. "“Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic”," AQR Working Papers 202104, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised May 2021.
    14. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2023. "Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    15. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Clements, Michael P. & Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2025. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    18. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    19. Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    20. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    21. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2025. "Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Microevidence of a Survey at High Frequency and of Distributions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(1), pages 201-234, January.
    22. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    23. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
    24. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    25. Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    disagreement; uncertainty; point forecasts; density forecasts; heterogeneity; ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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