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The Indian Exchange Rate and Central Bank Action : A GARCH Analysis

  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Sanchit Arora

We study, with daily and monthly data sets, the impact of conventional monetary policy measures such as interest rates, intervention and other quantitative measures, and of Central Bank communication on exchange rate volatility. Since India has a managed float, we also test if the measures affect the level of the exchange rate. Using dummy variables in the best of an estimated family of GARCH models, we find forex market intervention to be the most effective of all the CB instruments evaluated for the period of analysis. We also find that CB communication has a large potential but was not effectively used.

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File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/23016
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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 23016.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23016
Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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  1. Goyal, Ashima, 2010. "Inflows and policy: middling through," MPRA Paper 39868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective and Through Which Channel Does It Work?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 0363, European Central Bank.
  4. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1869, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  6. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Gabriele Galati & Piti Disyatat, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna," BIS Working Papers 172, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. roman Horvath & Radovan Fiser, 2009. "Central Bank Communication and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp962, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 0565, European Central Bank.
  11. Saurabh Ghosh & Indranil Bhattacharyya, 2009. "Spread, volatility and monetary policy: empirical evidence from the Indian overnight money market," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 257-277.
  12. Roberto Guimaraes & Cem Karacadag, 2005. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches," Working Paper Series 0528, European Central Bank.
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