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The Indian Exchange Rate and Central Bank Action : A GARCH Analysis

Author

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  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Sanchit Arora

Abstract

We study, with daily and monthly data sets, the impact of conventional monetary policy measures such as interest rates, intervention and other quantitative measures, and of Central Bank communication on exchange rate volatility. Since India has a managed float, we also test if the measures affect the level of the exchange rate. Using dummy variables in the best of an estimated family of GARCH models, we find forex market intervention to be the most effective of all the CB instruments evaluated for the period of analysis. We also find that CB communication has a large potential but was not effectively used.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2010. "The Indian Exchange Rate and Central Bank Action : A GARCH Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23016, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    4. Goyal, Ashima, 2010. "Inflows and policy: middling through," MPRA Paper 39868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    6. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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