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Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies

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  • Balázs Égert

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Abstract

This paper analyses the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey using the event study approach. Interventions are found to be effective only in the short run when they ease appreciation pressures. Central bank communication and interest rate steps considerably enhance their effectiveness. The observed effect of interventions on the exchange rate corresponds to the declared objectives of the central banks of Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and perhaps also Romania, whereas this is only partially true for Slovakia and Turkey. Finally, interventions are mostly sterilized in all countries except Croatia. Interventions are not much more effective in Croatia than in the other countries studied. This suggests that unsterilized interventions do not automatically influence the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," Working Papers 134, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emre Ozsoz & Erick W. Rengifo & Dominick Salvatore, 2008. "Dollarization as an Investment Signal in Developing Countries: The Case of Croatia, Czech Republic, Peru, Slovak Republic and Turkey," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-16, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
    3. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
    4. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, April.
    5. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2009. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 335-358, September.
    7. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    8. Hu, May & Li, Yunfeng & Yang, Jingjing & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2016. "Actual intervention and verbal intervention in the Chinese RMB exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 499-508.
    9. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Dimitrios Sideris, 2009. "Do the new EU member states form an Optimum Currency Area with the eurozone? Evidence from six Central and Eastern European Countries," SEEMHN papers 15, National Bank of Serbia.
    11. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    12. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    13. Vít Bubák & Filip Žikeš, 2009. "Distribution and Dynamics of Central-European Exchange Rates: Evidence from Intraday Data," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 334-359, Oktober.
    14. Sági, Judit, 2012. "Debt trap - monetary indicators of Hungary's indebtedness," MPRA Paper 40343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    16. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank intervention; communication; foreign exchange intervention; verbal intervention;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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