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The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ozge Akinci
  • Olcay Yucel Culha
  • Umit Ozlale
  • Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu

Abstract

This study has two purposes. First, it attempts to improve the literature on foreign exchange interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies, which have not been studied in details. The Turkish economy in the post-crisis period constitutes a good example in this context. Second, it proposes a new methodology, a time-varying parameter model, to analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange interventions. When the results from such an exercise are compared with the ones obtained from an event-study analysis, we find that the purchase-based interventions seem to be successful especially after the financial markets were stabilized. In that sense, we detect an asymmetry regarding the effectiveness of interventions. About the relationship between the interest rates and the exchange rates, we find that the uncovered interest rate parity condition operates in an unconventional way supporting the views put forth by the new emerging markets literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis," Working Papers 0506, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0506
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    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2005/05-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zoe McLaren, 2002. "The Effectiveness Of Reserve Bank Of Australia Foreign Exchange Intervention," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 849, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:syd:wpaper:9905 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:syd:wpaper:99-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    10. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    11. Juann H. Hung, 1991. "Noise trading and the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Research Paper 9111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    13. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
    14. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V Vance & Sellon, Gordon H, Jr, 1998. "Monetary Policy Actions, Intervention, and Exchange Rates: A Reexamination of the Empirical Relationships Using Federal Funds Rate Target Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 147-177, April.
    15. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoğlu, 2006. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: a post-crisis period analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1371-1388.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, 2011. "Determinants and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Georgia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 75-95, July.
    2. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
    3. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    4. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, 2011. "Determinants and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Georgia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 75-95, July.
    5. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Analyzing CBRT's FOREX interventions using EGARCH (2001-2006)," MPRA Paper 20634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling," MPRA Paper 19631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ferhan SALMAN & Tolga CASKURLU & Mustafa PINAR & Aslihan SALIH, "undated". "Can Central Bank Interventions Affect the Exchange Rate Volatility? Multivariate GARCH Approach Using Constrained Nonlinear Programming," EcoMod2008 23800121, EcoMod.
    8. Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
    9. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience," MPRA Paper 19598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chmelarova, Viera & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Exchange rate stabilization in developed and underdeveloped capital markets," Working Paper Series 636, European Central Bank.
    11. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, May.
    12. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
    13. Bal??zs ??gert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoğlu, 2006. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: a post-crisis period analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1371-1388.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange Interventions; Emerging Markets; Event Study and Time Varying Parameter Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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