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Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ozge Akinci
  • Olcay Yucel Culha
  • Umit Ozlale
  • Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu

Abstract

Foreign exchange rate interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies are studied only to a limited extent. However, due to the different characteristics of these economies, especially in terms of the exchange rate dynamics, such an analysis can reveal important information. This study analyzes both the causes and the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the post-crisis period. We find that, as officially stated by the Central Bank, the main motivation behind the interventions is the excessive volatility in the exchange rate. Regarding the effectiveness of the interventions, the large and isolated purchase-based interventions seem to be effective in decreasing the volatility in the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0505, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0505
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    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2005/05-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michel Beine & Ariane Szafarz, 2003. "The design of effective Central Bank interventions: the yen/dollar case," Working Papers CEB 03-008.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
    8. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Fatum, Rasmus, 2000. "On the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 0010, European Central Bank.
    10. Michael McKenzie, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility: Some Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 59-74, March.
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    12. Lewis, K., 1993. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-11, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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    14. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, 2011. "Determinants and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Georgia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 75-95, July.
    2. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
    3. Hoda SELIM, "undated". "Fear of Floating and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Egypt," EcoMod2010 259600151, EcoMod.
    4. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    5. Smita Roy Trivedi & P. G. Apte, 2016. "Central Bank Intervention in USD/INR Market: Estimating Its Reaction Function and Impact on Volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(3), pages 263-279, September.
    6. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, 2011. "Determinants and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Georgia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 75-95, July.
    7. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Analyzing CBRT's FOREX interventions using EGARCH (2001-2006)," MPRA Paper 20634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling," MPRA Paper 19631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ferhan SALMAN & Tolga CASKURLU & Mustafa PINAR & Aslihan SALIH, "undated". "Can Central Bank Interventions Affect the Exchange Rate Volatility? Multivariate GARCH Approach Using Constrained Nonlinear Programming," EcoMod2008 23800121, EcoMod.
    10. Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
    11. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience," MPRA Paper 19598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Brause, Alexander, 2008. "Foreign exchange interventions in emerging market countries: New lessons from Argentina," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 79, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    13. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, May.
    14. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
    15. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange Interventions; Emerging Markets; Probit Analysis; and GARCH Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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