Information content of exchange rate volatility: Turkish experience
This study constructs an empirical model of the volatility of the TL/US$ exchange rate for the Turkish economy during the post-2001 crisis period ending on August 2006. Employing the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) estimation methodology of econometrics, we find that the volatility of a given shock to the exchange rate is highly persistent and the successive forecasts of the conditional variance converge to the steady state quite slowly. In addition, the conditional variance of the exchange rate reacts differently to a given negative shock than to a positive shock with equal magnitude. The plot of the News Impact Curve indicates that a foreign investor would face a higher uncertainty when there is an unanticipated increase in the exchange rate when compared to an unanticipated decrease.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in International Business and Economics Research Journal 2.6(2007): pp. 9-14|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
- Irfan Civcir, 2003.
"Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?,"
Eastern European Economics,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
- Rudi Dornbusch, 2002.
"A Primer on Emerging-Market Crises,"
in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 743-754
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 2001.
"An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity,"
IMF Working Papers
01/196, International Monetary Fund.
- Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Causes and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0505, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank.
- Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
- Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
- Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis," Working Papers 0506, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.