Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia
Among the plethora of early warning mechanisms for currency crises proposed in the literature, there is an approach which has received little attention so far. This rather simple early warning indicator relies on the term structure of relative interest rates, unlike the vast majority of such systems that are based on macroeconomic fundamentals to predict a crisis in a long- or medium-term horizon. It measures changes in market sentiment regarding the relative probability of a currency crisis to estimate the timing of a crisis within a very short time window. This indicator thus complements long-horizon models that have been widely used so far. We apply this method to currency crises in the Czech Republic in 1997 and in Russia in 1998 and fi nd evidence that the indicator would have performed well as a real-time predictor in both episodes of currency distress.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, 2010.
"An almost-too-late warning mechanism for currency crises,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(1), pages 123-141, 01.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs & Slacik, Tomas, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, 2007. "An "Almost-Too-Late" Warning Mechanism For Currency Crises," Working Papers 2007-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 2002. "Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Overview of Prevention and Management," NBER Working Papers 8837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rudi Dornbusch, 2001.
"A Primer on Emerging Market Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
8326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-18.
- Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2007:i:1:b:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Birgit Riedler)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.