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Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    ()

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Tomáš Slacík

    ()

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Among the plethora of early warning mechanisms for currency crises proposed in the literature, there is an approach which has received little attention so far. This rather simple early warning indicator relies on the term structure of relative interest rates, unlike the vast majority of such systems that are based on macroeconomic fundamentals to predict a crisis in a long- or medium-term horizon. It measures changes in market sentiment regarding the relative probability of a currency crisis to estimate the timing of a crisis within a very short time window. This indicator thus complements long-horizon models that have been widely used so far. We apply this method to currency crises in the Czech Republic in 1997 and in Russia in 1998 and fi nd evidence that the indicator would have performed well as a real-time predictor in both episodes of currency distress.

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File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2007/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q1-07/chapters/feei_2007_1_cuaresma_slacik_tcm16-58442.pdf
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Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 135-149

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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2007:i:1:b:5
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  1. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Overview of Prevention and Management," NBER Working Papers 8837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  3. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "A Primer on Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 8326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  5. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  7. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs & Slacik, Tomas, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  10. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 7-18.
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